Cause and Effect
Quick one for you all tonight. I just read on Metsblog that the Yankees believe Cliff Lee will agree to terms with the Phillies, giving them basically the best rotation of all time.
Ordinarily that would be kind of a tongue in cheek type of statement, but in this case it's not. Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels. Pretty darn impressive.
We all knew that the Mets were not going to contend for the NL East title in 2011, but some of us, myself included, held out legitimate hope of making a run at it as early as 2012, with 2013 being somewhat more realistic.
If Lee signs with the Phillies he dramatically shifts that calculus. Barring injury (which, I grant, is a pretty major caveat here) or some miraculous series of moves, the Mets no longer have a credible path to the NL East title for about the next 5 years. What does that mean for how we orient ourselves today?
Well, it can mean different things depending on how you view it. Think back to the 1999-2000 seasons; the Mets had to settle for the Wild Card both years, but they advanced to the NLCS in the former and to the World Series in the latter. There's no shame in that.
At the same time, the rest of the division projects to be much more competitive in the next five years (a somewhat arbitrary number I keep referring to... just go with it) than it was at the end of the last decade, with the Braves and Nationals ascendant, and the Marlins a constant bother.
Is the Wild Card a reasonable hope? Well, we'll have a much better idea as next offseason comes into focus. If you can sign an Albert Pujols, that's a game changer.
If there are no difference makers to be had, however, I think the Phillies' projected move has to impact how the team views guys like Jose Reyes and David Wright. It pains me tremendously to say it, but if those guys aren't going to be part of a championship team in the next five years, their optimal value to this franchise is going to come from us trading them elsewhere.
If you can trade away a superstar, centerpiece type player to net a few guys you can build the next era around, there's no shame in that either.
I'm not saying you blow this team up right away; I mean, this Lee-to-the-Phillies thing is just a rumor as I write this. But if this rumor becomes reality, the Mets will need to respond to that new reality. Does it necessarily mean you have to trade Wright or Reyes? No, but that option has to be considered in an altogether new light.
This offseason was supposed to be the easy part for Sandy Alderson and co. Turns out that a roster move made away from our club may provide the defining moment of his tenure.
- A.F.O.M.G.
Ordinarily that would be kind of a tongue in cheek type of statement, but in this case it's not. Halladay-Lee-Oswalt-Hamels. Pretty darn impressive.
If Lee signs with the Phillies he dramatically shifts that calculus. Barring injury (which, I grant, is a pretty major caveat here) or some miraculous series of moves, the Mets no longer have a credible path to the NL East title for about the next 5 years. What does that mean for how we orient ourselves today?
Well, it can mean different things depending on how you view it. Think back to the 1999-2000 seasons; the Mets had to settle for the Wild Card both years, but they advanced to the NLCS in the former and to the World Series in the latter. There's no shame in that.
At the same time, the rest of the division projects to be much more competitive in the next five years (a somewhat arbitrary number I keep referring to... just go with it) than it was at the end of the last decade, with the Braves and Nationals ascendant, and the Marlins a constant bother.
Is the Wild Card a reasonable hope? Well, we'll have a much better idea as next offseason comes into focus. If you can sign an Albert Pujols, that's a game changer.
If there are no difference makers to be had, however, I think the Phillies' projected move has to impact how the team views guys like Jose Reyes and David Wright. It pains me tremendously to say it, but if those guys aren't going to be part of a championship team in the next five years, their optimal value to this franchise is going to come from us trading them elsewhere.
If you can trade away a superstar, centerpiece type player to net a few guys you can build the next era around, there's no shame in that either.
I'm not saying you blow this team up right away; I mean, this Lee-to-the-Phillies thing is just a rumor as I write this. But if this rumor becomes reality, the Mets will need to respond to that new reality. Does it necessarily mean you have to trade Wright or Reyes? No, but that option has to be considered in an altogether new light.
This offseason was supposed to be the easy part for Sandy Alderson and co. Turns out that a roster move made away from our club may provide the defining moment of his tenure.
- A.F.O.M.G.
posted by A Friend of Mr. Glass' at 11:20 PM
1 Comments:
What were the terms of the Cliff Lee contract? How many years? How much money?
If Jose Reyes were to be traded, the only person I can think of getting is Hanley Ramirez. They are pretty much clones; except that Jose has more of the team player charisma to his credit. I'd expect Hanley to put up Albert Pujols numbers in about 5 years. Whereas for Jose, I think that his numbers may be diminishing in 5 years.
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