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Monday, July 12, 2010

The Ruler's Back

One thing sports fans and members of the media love to speculate about is when a formerly great player is finally over the hill or officially washed up.

There's a great article in the New Yorker this week about David Ortiz and the questioning he's faced the past two seasons. Earlier this year, Ortiz, everyone knew, was done. His bat was slow, his hands slower. There was talk he'd be released by June.

Zoom forward to the present and Ortiz is sitting on 18 home runs and 57 RBI at the break, on pace for 36 and 114, respectively. His OPS is a fearsome .945 (better than his career average of .923). Ortiz may not be the same guy he was from 2004-2007, but it turns out he's still a very capable hitter.
Over in Metsville we've had a similar set of questions surrounding one of our great players, Johan Santana. Santana faced questions every fifth day about whether he was still an ace pitcher, or still even the ace of his own staff given the ascendant Mike Pelfrey.

The argument on Johan really came down to two issues, one (somewhat) crazy and the other not so crazy. The somewhat crazy argument was all about his win totals, which were not good.

He had, of course, pitched brilliantly in a number of no-decisions, but that wasn't good enough. Ace pitchers are supposed to win, particularly when you're paying them $20 million per year.

That argument is mostly unfair but there's a part of me that sympathizes; it's out of Johan's control if the offense scores for him, but an ace is supposed to find a way to win (often by finishing what he starts). Johan rarely goes the distance; he's very un-Roy Halladay in that way.

In any event, the greater cause for concern was his diminishing velocity. More than anything else, the declining speed of his fastball, coupled with the implications that declining speed would have for his trademark change-up, made for a very troubling package.

But then all of a sudden he dropped his hands in an effort to stop tipping his pitches and sure enough he started to turn things around. He's reeled off three brilliant starts in a row (including a complete game shutout against the best offense in the NL), lowering his ERA to a team-best 2.98.

As the Mets went 2-4 against two of the best teams in the National League, the only victories came in Johan's starts.

Happily, it seems the obituaries on Johan were a bit premature.

- A.F.O.M.G.

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