2010 NL East Preview
Hey folks, Cheddar Ben back for a season preview post. Exciting, right? Well, kind of. Most Mets fans I've talked to recently are of two minds about the start of the season. Obviously, everyone wants to get past the disaster that was 2009 as quickly as possible. Nobody associated with the team is interested in reliving last year with the possible exception of the vendors at Citi Field's Shake Shack stand, who took a fair bit of change off of me. But for the most part, we want to exchange our lingering, sour memories for some new, sweet and tasty ones.
Problem being, nobody can be sure that 2010 will be as sweet and delicious as we hope. Obviously, it's highly unlikely that things will go as poorly as they did last summer, when Murphy's Law was in full effect. Things can't always go wrong to the maximum extent, or else how would anything ever go well for anyone? (In fact, let's go ahead and coin another Irish-sounding maxim to counteract the old one. We'll call it McDowell's Law, and its rule is "those repeatedly victimized by that jagoff Murphy get a break from time to time." Fair enough.)
But if the situation improves from "dire" to "okay" or "mediocre," is that really a development worth having a parade over? Would a (substantial) improvement to .500 ball really be something to celebrate? This explains a lot of the apathy from the Mets faithful that I've been sensing.
And unfortunately, a look at the division reveals that the team (and its fans) probably do have good reason to expect mediocre returns for 2010. Here, then, in expected order of finish, are the denizens of the National League's East Division.
Problem being, nobody can be sure that 2010 will be as sweet and delicious as we hope. Obviously, it's highly unlikely that things will go as poorly as they did last summer, when Murphy's Law was in full effect. Things can't always go wrong to the maximum extent, or else how would anything ever go well for anyone? (In fact, let's go ahead and coin another Irish-sounding maxim to counteract the old one. We'll call it McDowell's Law, and its rule is "those repeatedly victimized by that jagoff Murphy get a break from time to time." Fair enough.)
But if the situation improves from "dire" to "okay" or "mediocre," is that really a development worth having a parade over? Would a (substantial) improvement to .500 ball really be something to celebrate? This explains a lot of the apathy from the Mets faithful that I've been sensing.
And unfortunately, a look at the division reveals that the team (and its fans) probably do have good reason to expect mediocre returns for 2010. Here, then, in expected order of finish, are the denizens of the National League's East Division.
The Illadelphia Phillies
2009 record - 93-69 (1st)
2010 projected - 91-71 (1st)
Garbage out - 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Cliff Lee, jheri curl Pedro Martinez
Garbage in - SP Roy Halladay, IF Placido Polanco, C Brian Schneider (good luck with that)
I didn't get any sort of consensus from my Mets fan friends during the 2009 World Series. Maybe you did -- the opinions I heard were all over the map. I heard people say they always root for the New York team over the non-New York team. I heard people claim indifference. I heard people say they hate the Yankees more than anything, and would grit their teeth and root for the Mets' hated rivals regardless. I heard people say they were going to watch old figure skating tapes instead of the baseball games. (To be fair, the only person to tell me that was Young Sip.)
Me, I was pulling for the Phils in the end, but only after I ruled out a stadium collapse on collateral damage grounds. This wasn't a total loss -- you could kind of shoehorn it into a "rooting for the underdog" framework given how dominant the Yanks were, and Cliff Lee was kind of on a hot streak, which made it a nice story... . But it left a bitter taste in my mouth, and I've vowed never to do it again. If there's a World Series rematch this fall, I'm going to take a leave of absence from school, find the cheapest flight possible to Barcelona, and go into a soccer coma for two weeks. I'll get to learn some Catalan out of the deal, boom.
In the end, I just hate these fuckers so much that I've lost all ability to think rationally about the subject. Case in point - Chase Utley. Everyone likes this dude. Fantastic, game-changing player, yet he's still underrated (check out his finishes in the MVP voting, if you even want to call them that). Does everything well, hustles, picks up his team, doesn't complain that Fatty Howard and Jimmy the Mouth and his pussy-whipped ace get all the attention. And Fangraphs actually projects him to be the most valuable player in baseball this coming season.
Well fuck you, Fangraphs. Come up with a different valuation system that incorporates "being a total cock" into the measurement. And the rest of America, stop being fooled by Utley's rugged good looks and suface-level absence of assholish behavior. It's there, if you squint and look hard enough. He drops F-bombs in public every once in a while! That's unforgivable, for fuck's sake. He, um ... doesn't tip bathroom attendants enough! Yeah, I know bathroom attendants are totally unnecessary and more than a little creepy and anyone just wants to get out of that damn marble prison as quickly as possible ... but still!
This is what I'm reduced to -- fishing in empty waters for reasons to hate guys I have no business hating. The Phillies make me that angry.
As for the team, my prediction for them incorporates a basically flawless season from Halladay, who's going to love pitching against the likes of the Mets offense. But I see possible regression across the board from the Phils' hitters, especially Jayson Werth and Howard, who is all but useless against left-handed pitchers at this point (.209/.298/.356 in 222 ABs in 2009). I'm also going to go out on a limb and say J.A. Happ isn't going to post another sub-3.00 ERA. I don't mean in 2010; I mean ever, and that includes when he's washed up and playing for the Long Island Ducks in four years. But all the same, you don't figure Rollins is going to repeat his ice-cold start, and Brad Lidge could only be as atrocious again if he dyed his goatee dark and changed his name to Armando. Polanco should function as a decent substitute for the departed Feliz - more OBP, less pop and defense.
Basically, I see the Phils as a slightly less capable version of their 2009 selves. That should be enough to take this lousy division. Disgusting.
I didn't get any sort of consensus from my Mets fan friends during the 2009 World Series. Maybe you did -- the opinions I heard were all over the map. I heard people say they always root for the New York team over the non-New York team. I heard people claim indifference. I heard people say they hate the Yankees more than anything, and would grit their teeth and root for the Mets' hated rivals regardless. I heard people say they were going to watch old figure skating tapes instead of the baseball games. (To be fair, the only person to tell me that was Young Sip.)
Me, I was pulling for the Phils in the end, but only after I ruled out a stadium collapse on collateral damage grounds. This wasn't a total loss -- you could kind of shoehorn it into a "rooting for the underdog" framework given how dominant the Yanks were, and Cliff Lee was kind of on a hot streak, which made it a nice story... . But it left a bitter taste in my mouth, and I've vowed never to do it again. If there's a World Series rematch this fall, I'm going to take a leave of absence from school, find the cheapest flight possible to Barcelona, and go into a soccer coma for two weeks. I'll get to learn some Catalan out of the deal, boom.
In the end, I just hate these fuckers so much that I've lost all ability to think rationally about the subject. Case in point - Chase Utley. Everyone likes this dude. Fantastic, game-changing player, yet he's still underrated (check out his finishes in the MVP voting, if you even want to call them that). Does everything well, hustles, picks up his team, doesn't complain that Fatty Howard and Jimmy the Mouth and his pussy-whipped ace get all the attention. And Fangraphs actually projects him to be the most valuable player in baseball this coming season.
Well fuck you, Fangraphs. Come up with a different valuation system that incorporates "being a total cock" into the measurement. And the rest of America, stop being fooled by Utley's rugged good looks and suface-level absence of assholish behavior. It's there, if you squint and look hard enough. He drops F-bombs in public every once in a while! That's unforgivable, for fuck's sake. He, um ... doesn't tip bathroom attendants enough! Yeah, I know bathroom attendants are totally unnecessary and more than a little creepy and anyone just wants to get out of that damn marble prison as quickly as possible ... but still!
This is what I'm reduced to -- fishing in empty waters for reasons to hate guys I have no business hating. The Phillies make me that angry.
As for the team, my prediction for them incorporates a basically flawless season from Halladay, who's going to love pitching against the likes of the Mets offense. But I see possible regression across the board from the Phils' hitters, especially Jayson Werth and Howard, who is all but useless against left-handed pitchers at this point (.209/.298/.356 in 222 ABs in 2009). I'm also going to go out on a limb and say J.A. Happ isn't going to post another sub-3.00 ERA. I don't mean in 2010; I mean ever, and that includes when he's washed up and playing for the Long Island Ducks in four years. But all the same, you don't figure Rollins is going to repeat his ice-cold start, and Brad Lidge could only be as atrocious again if he dyed his goatee dark and changed his name to Armando. Polanco should function as a decent substitute for the departed Feliz - more OBP, less pop and defense.
Basically, I see the Phils as a slightly less capable version of their 2009 selves. That should be enough to take this lousy division. Disgusting.
The Hotlanta Bravos
2009 record - 86-76 (3rd)
2010 projected - 90-72 (2nd)
Garbage out - SP Javy Vazquez, RP Rafael Soriano, RP Mike Gonzalez, 2B Kelly Johnson
Garbage in - 1B/3B Troy Glaus, OF Melky Cabrera, RP/tobacco stain Billy Wagner, RP Takashi Saito, OF Jason Heyward
Very interesting group. They underperformed their Pythagorean W-L by five games last season, and Baseball Prospectus had them as the best third-order team in the NL (third-order being the number of runs scored vs. allowed if you look at the number of hits, walks, earned and allowed, and punch them into a formula). So, given there's an argument that this was already among the best teams in the league, you'd want to ask if they've improved themselves or not.
And ... I'm not sure. On the one hand, I find it hard to argue against dumping Javy Vazquez after he has his career year (2.89 ERA in 219 IP, 238K). But they dumped him for a whole lot of nothing -- the Melk Man and a bag of party favors -- and are replacing him with the ghost of Tim Hudson, who missed the bulk of the 2009 season with Tommy John recovery. Another half-season of the terrifying Tommy Hanson will be nice -- the kid punched up a 2.89 ERA and 116 K in 21 starts. But Jair Jurrgens' 2.60 ERA is almost certainly unsustainable, and so you're left with the impression that the team's main strength from a year ago is at least something of a question mark.
On offense, everyone wants to talk about the possibility that Hulk will smash. Wait, I mean the possibility that Jason Heyward makes the team out of Spring Training and dominates out of the gate. Now, I understand that this guy is going to be the most dynamic athlete in Atlanta sports since Mike Vick. I understand he's denting cars in Florida parking lots. Understood. No argument here about his long-term potential.
But to me, it's a lot more important that Chipper Jones -- team stalwart, Met killer, and all-around hick -- hit a cool .236 after the All-Star break and has been openly discussing retirement. With all due respect to J-Hey, Chipper has been carrying the Braves' lineup for half a decade now, and his loss -- in addition to whatever other bonuses you want to give him for leadership -- and any lineup without him is going to look quite a bit less scary to me.
And then there's the Atlanta bullpen. Wagner, who I assume is down with the whole Tea Party thing, is slated to be the closer. Obviously someone was going to sign him after he looked fine in 15-odd innings last year after coming back from injury (and probably even if he didn't), but this is obviously a high-risk area. Oh, and he's a "proven" closer. That and $4 will get you a cup of hot water filtered through ground-up beans. The backup plan is Saito, who came over from the Red Sox, where he had almost no high-leverage work, and then the Moylan-Medlen-O'Flaherty gang. I don't trust this bunch at all.
If everything breaks right for the Bravos -- Heyward is an easy ROY pick, Hudson returns, Tommy and Jair don't suffer any kind of slump, Billy and Chipper have another good season in them old legs, Martin Prado continues to do a passable Polanco impression -- this team is going to crush the Phils and everyone else in the league for that matter. But my guess is that at least one or two things will go majorly wrong, and the team will have to settle for a Wild Card chase, probably taking it home.
Very interesting group. They underperformed their Pythagorean W-L by five games last season, and Baseball Prospectus had them as the best third-order team in the NL (third-order being the number of runs scored vs. allowed if you look at the number of hits, walks, earned and allowed, and punch them into a formula). So, given there's an argument that this was already among the best teams in the league, you'd want to ask if they've improved themselves or not.
And ... I'm not sure. On the one hand, I find it hard to argue against dumping Javy Vazquez after he has his career year (2.89 ERA in 219 IP, 238K). But they dumped him for a whole lot of nothing -- the Melk Man and a bag of party favors -- and are replacing him with the ghost of Tim Hudson, who missed the bulk of the 2009 season with Tommy John recovery. Another half-season of the terrifying Tommy Hanson will be nice -- the kid punched up a 2.89 ERA and 116 K in 21 starts. But Jair Jurrgens' 2.60 ERA is almost certainly unsustainable, and so you're left with the impression that the team's main strength from a year ago is at least something of a question mark.
On offense, everyone wants to talk about the possibility that Hulk will smash. Wait, I mean the possibility that Jason Heyward makes the team out of Spring Training and dominates out of the gate. Now, I understand that this guy is going to be the most dynamic athlete in Atlanta sports since Mike Vick. I understand he's denting cars in Florida parking lots. Understood. No argument here about his long-term potential.
But to me, it's a lot more important that Chipper Jones -- team stalwart, Met killer, and all-around hick -- hit a cool .236 after the All-Star break and has been openly discussing retirement. With all due respect to J-Hey, Chipper has been carrying the Braves' lineup for half a decade now, and his loss -- in addition to whatever other bonuses you want to give him for leadership -- and any lineup without him is going to look quite a bit less scary to me.
And then there's the Atlanta bullpen. Wagner, who I assume is down with the whole Tea Party thing, is slated to be the closer. Obviously someone was going to sign him after he looked fine in 15-odd innings last year after coming back from injury (and probably even if he didn't), but this is obviously a high-risk area. Oh, and he's a "proven" closer. That and $4 will get you a cup of hot water filtered through ground-up beans. The backup plan is Saito, who came over from the Red Sox, where he had almost no high-leverage work, and then the Moylan-Medlen-O'Flaherty gang. I don't trust this bunch at all.
If everything breaks right for the Bravos -- Heyward is an easy ROY pick, Hudson returns, Tommy and Jair don't suffer any kind of slump, Billy and Chipper have another good season in them old legs, Martin Prado continues to do a passable Polanco impression -- this team is going to crush the Phils and everyone else in the league for that matter. But my guess is that at least one or two things will go majorly wrong, and the team will have to settle for a Wild Card chase, probably taking it home.
The Metropolitans
2009 record - 70-92 (4th)
2010 projected - 81-81 (tie, 3rd)
Garbage out - Wagner, Schneider, 1B Carlos Delgado, OF Gary Sheffield, SP Livan Hernandez
Garbage in - OF Jason Bay, P Kelvim Escobar, C Rod Barajas, nuisance Gary Matthews, Jr., RP Kiko Calero, possibly two Japanese guys
I knew the Metsies were in trouble as soon as they signed that damn Livan Hernandez. He has a loser's stink on him, all those mediocre years removed from the '97 win. Nobody wins anything with Livan. More likely you're the Nationals and he's starting from you on Opening Day. That was always a bad sign.
No? Alright, let's try this one. Carlos Delgado's career is probably over at this point, and for a guy who's got a real Hall of Fame case (if not a good one), he went out with a whimper, giving the Mets only 26 games due to injury in the final leg of his four-year stint with the team. Remember how excited we were when that trade when down? In the end, Carlito put together two good seasons in Mets colors: 2006 (131 OPS+) and 2008 (127 OPS+). The HR numbers were good, he was a threat, he was totally worth the money. In '07 he was totally mediocre, and last year basically was off the board. Here's the shitty thing -- his awful '07 campaign (.258/.333/.448, 102 OPS+) is a good sight better than what sweet swingin' Daniel Murphy did last year -- .266/.313/.427 -- and is essentially what Fangraphs predicts for him in 2010. Would people say right now that Delgado was a totally successful trade? No, because of the down year and last season. But just know that it may be a good long time before a Mets first baseman hits 38 homers.
How about this -- Jeff Francoeur's good run with the Mets was almost totally a product of good luck. No, wait, I take it back. It was 100 percent a product of good luck. Check out this if you don't believe me. (The part that makes me vomit -- "In other words, his overall .280/.309/.423 ... is a pretty accurate reflection of his talents." Somebody give this man $5 million!)
I knew the Metsies were in trouble as soon as they signed that damn Livan Hernandez. He has a loser's stink on him, all those mediocre years removed from the '97 win. Nobody wins anything with Livan. More likely you're the Nationals and he's starting from you on Opening Day. That was always a bad sign.
No? Alright, let's try this one. Carlos Delgado's career is probably over at this point, and for a guy who's got a real Hall of Fame case (if not a good one), he went out with a whimper, giving the Mets only 26 games due to injury in the final leg of his four-year stint with the team. Remember how excited we were when that trade when down? In the end, Carlito put together two good seasons in Mets colors: 2006 (131 OPS+) and 2008 (127 OPS+). The HR numbers were good, he was a threat, he was totally worth the money. In '07 he was totally mediocre, and last year basically was off the board. Here's the shitty thing -- his awful '07 campaign (.258/.333/.448, 102 OPS+) is a good sight better than what sweet swingin' Daniel Murphy did last year -- .266/.313/.427 -- and is essentially what Fangraphs predicts for him in 2010. Would people say right now that Delgado was a totally successful trade? No, because of the down year and last season. But just know that it may be a good long time before a Mets first baseman hits 38 homers.
How about this -- Jeff Francoeur's good run with the Mets was almost totally a product of good luck. No, wait, I take it back. It was 100 percent a product of good luck. Check out this if you don't believe me. (The part that makes me vomit -- "In other words, his overall .280/.309/.423 ... is a pretty accurate reflection of his talents." Somebody give this man $5 million!)
How about this -- among the symptoms of hyperthyroidism are: difficulty concentrating, fatigue, frequent bowel movements, nervousness, restlessness, increased appetite, and irregular menstrual periods. This has me convinced that Jose Reyes is going to turn into Manny Ramirez. I know that's probably not right -- that's just how I feel.
OK, how about this -- how are the Mets going to find 11 additional wins on this roster? Well, I tend to think Jason Bay is going to have a big year -- I think moving from the AL to the NL will give his numbers and confidence a bit of a bump, and he was already pretty good to begin with. Maybe Year 4 of this contract won't work out so well (see above), but I think we can look forward to at least a few dingers out to left in Citi Field. Weird, I know. The same goes for D-Wright, who will bounce back to 20+ HR form in '10.
Second, the Mets are due for a Japanese contribution of value. Ken Takahashi, thanks for coming, don't forget to have your visa stamped. Ryoto and Hisanori, welcome. One of these guys reminds me of Kaz Sasaki; I just don't know which one yet. Get back to me in May.
Beltran and Reyes I don't want to talk about, it's just too terrifying. That leaves the rotation, which will improve by default. I'm counting on McDowell's Law a little bit here -- obviously injuries are possible again, and maybe this time Johan gets hit by a Jet Blue flight trying to make a deadline. But we can expect better. How much better? Ehhhhhh. Take, for example, Mike Pelfrey, he of the 5.03 ERA and strikeout allergy. Do I think his ERA will be above 5.00 again? No I do not. But Marcel is the most bullish of the projection systems, and it pegs Pelf for a 4.40 ERA. We'd probably take that in a heartbeat. That says something, I think, when Pelfrey is the nominal No. 2 starter in the rotation.
More importantly, The Maine Event and All-or-Nothing Ollie will improve things by simply being on the mound as opposed to the training table. Again, those circa-4.50 ERAs aren't going to move mountains. (And anything who thinks you can expect anything more from these clowns is lying to themselves.) But note again that 4.50 is not 5.47 (Livan, in 135 IP); it is not 5.10 (Tim Redding, in 120); it is most definitely not 7.30 (Bobby Parnell in eight starts we will never again discuss). Regardless of what Nieve or anyone else does in the No. 5 slot, it is likely -- not definite, but likely -- that the Mets will at the very least have four actual major-league starters in their rotation, which will tend to drag the team upwards into the realm of the generically crappy.
Kiko Calero may be involved. That's a fun name to say. Kiko. Heh. Also, you might not have noticed, but Kiko had a nice little year in 2009 (1.95 ERA, 69 K in 60 IP). He won't have a sub-3.00 ERA again, but at least he strikes some guys out, and for a free reliever, he's not a bad bet.
Will the summer be fun as a result? Hey, it's gonna be better than last year, when the mood was borderline suicidal during some losses and maxed out at "apathetic" after the All-Star break. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking that means the team will be competing. It has major holes in Frenchy, Murphy, catcher, and probably Castillo, and we've already had a weird injury. The Metsies will be okay this year, and okay is okay for now. They're simply not worth tearing off your shirt and challenging anyone to a fight over.
OK, how about this -- how are the Mets going to find 11 additional wins on this roster? Well, I tend to think Jason Bay is going to have a big year -- I think moving from the AL to the NL will give his numbers and confidence a bit of a bump, and he was already pretty good to begin with. Maybe Year 4 of this contract won't work out so well (see above), but I think we can look forward to at least a few dingers out to left in Citi Field. Weird, I know. The same goes for D-Wright, who will bounce back to 20+ HR form in '10.
Second, the Mets are due for a Japanese contribution of value. Ken Takahashi, thanks for coming, don't forget to have your visa stamped. Ryoto and Hisanori, welcome. One of these guys reminds me of Kaz Sasaki; I just don't know which one yet. Get back to me in May.
Beltran and Reyes I don't want to talk about, it's just too terrifying. That leaves the rotation, which will improve by default. I'm counting on McDowell's Law a little bit here -- obviously injuries are possible again, and maybe this time Johan gets hit by a Jet Blue flight trying to make a deadline. But we can expect better. How much better? Ehhhhhh. Take, for example, Mike Pelfrey, he of the 5.03 ERA and strikeout allergy. Do I think his ERA will be above 5.00 again? No I do not. But Marcel is the most bullish of the projection systems, and it pegs Pelf for a 4.40 ERA. We'd probably take that in a heartbeat. That says something, I think, when Pelfrey is the nominal No. 2 starter in the rotation.
More importantly, The Maine Event and All-or-Nothing Ollie will improve things by simply being on the mound as opposed to the training table. Again, those circa-4.50 ERAs aren't going to move mountains. (And anything who thinks you can expect anything more from these clowns is lying to themselves.) But note again that 4.50 is not 5.47 (Livan, in 135 IP); it is not 5.10 (Tim Redding, in 120); it is most definitely not 7.30 (Bobby Parnell in eight starts we will never again discuss). Regardless of what Nieve or anyone else does in the No. 5 slot, it is likely -- not definite, but likely -- that the Mets will at the very least have four actual major-league starters in their rotation, which will tend to drag the team upwards into the realm of the generically crappy.
Kiko Calero may be involved. That's a fun name to say. Kiko. Heh. Also, you might not have noticed, but Kiko had a nice little year in 2009 (1.95 ERA, 69 K in 60 IP). He won't have a sub-3.00 ERA again, but at least he strikes some guys out, and for a free reliever, he's not a bad bet.
Will the summer be fun as a result? Hey, it's gonna be better than last year, when the mood was borderline suicidal during some losses and maxed out at "apathetic" after the All-Star break. But let's not fool ourselves into thinking that means the team will be competing. It has major holes in Frenchy, Murphy, catcher, and probably Castillo, and we've already had a weird injury. The Metsies will be okay this year, and okay is okay for now. They're simply not worth tearing off your shirt and challenging anyone to a fight over.
The Miami-Dade Suckers
2009 record - 87-75 (2nd)
2010 projected - 81-81 (tie, 3rd)
Garbage out - Calero, OF Jeremy Hermida,
Garbage in - 3B Gaby Sanchez
Wait, you gave the Marlins how much to build a new stadium? Did you say $347 million? Plus $10 million to tear down the Orange Bowl? Are you out of your mind?
It's really the same team, with Hermida departed to play as a fourth outfielder in front of actual fans in Boston. The Fish will play Cody Ross less and Cameron Maybin more, which could work out, as Maybin is all sorts of speedy, but doesn't really know how to hit quite yet. They'll play ROY Chris Coglan and his .365 BABIP the same, which is unlikely to produce similar results the second time around. They're letting it ride on Jorge Cantu, which will work just about the same as when I let it ride in casinos. Moreover, I'm betting this is the year the Dan Uggla facade comes crashing down, and we learn that the previous four years were, in fact, all a DARPA-funded experiment into smoke, mirrors and the gullibility of the American baseball-watching public. Fastest second baseman to 100 HR in history my foot. Nobody would ever fall for that.
If I were Hanley Ramirez, I would get frustrated as shit on this team. What is there to look forward to? What exactly is the endgame? Yeah, you can hope for some crazy improvements and lucky breaks and a wild card berth and maybe a playoff run. But there are other baseball teams that are actually willing to spend money on major-league talent instead of just running a guy out there because they cost nothing. They will make trades to improve a team when it has a chance of winning something (yeah, yeah ...). Wouldn't you want to play for one of those teams? Wouldn't you try to get your very reasonable contract traded to one of those teams? If he's actually happy in Miami, I have yet to hear a good reason why.
Wait, you gave the Marlins how much to build a new stadium? Did you say $347 million? Plus $10 million to tear down the Orange Bowl? Are you out of your mind?
It's really the same team, with Hermida departed to play as a fourth outfielder in front of actual fans in Boston. The Fish will play Cody Ross less and Cameron Maybin more, which could work out, as Maybin is all sorts of speedy, but doesn't really know how to hit quite yet. They'll play ROY Chris Coglan and his .365 BABIP the same, which is unlikely to produce similar results the second time around. They're letting it ride on Jorge Cantu, which will work just about the same as when I let it ride in casinos. Moreover, I'm betting this is the year the Dan Uggla facade comes crashing down, and we learn that the previous four years were, in fact, all a DARPA-funded experiment into smoke, mirrors and the gullibility of the American baseball-watching public. Fastest second baseman to 100 HR in history my foot. Nobody would ever fall for that.
If I were Hanley Ramirez, I would get frustrated as shit on this team. What is there to look forward to? What exactly is the endgame? Yeah, you can hope for some crazy improvements and lucky breaks and a wild card berth and maybe a playoff run. But there are other baseball teams that are actually willing to spend money on major-league talent instead of just running a guy out there because they cost nothing. They will make trades to improve a team when it has a chance of winning something (yeah, yeah ...). Wouldn't you want to play for one of those teams? Wouldn't you try to get your very reasonable contract traded to one of those teams? If he's actually happy in Miami, I have yet to hear a good reason why.
The Strasburg Strasburgs
2009 strasburg - 59-103 (5th)
2010 strasburg- 69-93 (5th)
Strasburg out - 1B Nick Johnson, OF Elijah Dukes, C Josh Bard
Strasburg in - STRASSSSSSSSSSBURRRRRRRG!, Pudge, SP Jason Marquis, RP Matt Capps, RP Brian Bruney, 2B Adam Kennedy
Strasburg strasburg strasburg? Strasburg. Strasburg. Strasburg strasburg strasburg, strasburg strasburg starsburg strasburg, strasburg strasburg.
Strasburg.
Where was I? Oh yeah. My bet is the interest level in a certain somebody's start drops by mid-July, after it becomes clear that, oh yeah, this is a rookie pitcher, and he's not the second coming of anything. This probably wouldn't happen anywhere but D.C., where baseball seems to operate as antimatter, in both the geeky sci-fi sense and even geekier pun sense. Yes, I'm running out of things to write about.
If you look at the names on the incoming list, they actually resemble real live baseball players for the first time in a while. Everything I wrote about the Mets rotation goes double for the Nats' rotation. Marquis isn't my idea of a gem, but he pitched well in Coors Field last season, and to Washington he might as well be Robin Roberts. The only exception is that poor John Lannan, who seems like a pretty nice guy through my TV set, might have just had his career year (3.88 ERA in 206 IP, 89K). Capps had a down 2009, but he and Bruney are very serviceable in the bullpen. Recall that the Nats allowed a whopping 874 runs in '09; that was more than ALL BUT ONE AMERICAN LEAGUE TEAM (thank Jesus for the Orioles, am I right?). The Brewers were the only other NL team to allow 800. So some TARP money was in order here.
However, I wouldn't say I'm pleased with some of the other decisions they made. Cutting Elijah Dukes just because he's a totally unstable wild card seems like something of an overreaction to me. (The Mets should pick him up. Totally serious.) That leaves them with an outfield of Josh Willingham (sneaky good in '09), Nyjer Morgan, and I guess a Willie Harris/Jason Maxwell platoon in right. Yowch. And then there's Pudge, who has been cooked for years but doesn't want to hang 'em up yet. I guess it makes sense that he would wind up in Washington, where hanging on after you're wanted is a way of life.
I will, however, pay to see at least one Strasburg start this summer. So there's that.
Strasburg strasburg strasburg? Strasburg. Strasburg. Strasburg strasburg strasburg, strasburg strasburg starsburg strasburg, strasburg strasburg.
Strasburg.
Where was I? Oh yeah. My bet is the interest level in a certain somebody's start drops by mid-July, after it becomes clear that, oh yeah, this is a rookie pitcher, and he's not the second coming of anything. This probably wouldn't happen anywhere but D.C., where baseball seems to operate as antimatter, in both the geeky sci-fi sense and even geekier pun sense. Yes, I'm running out of things to write about.
If you look at the names on the incoming list, they actually resemble real live baseball players for the first time in a while. Everything I wrote about the Mets rotation goes double for the Nats' rotation. Marquis isn't my idea of a gem, but he pitched well in Coors Field last season, and to Washington he might as well be Robin Roberts. The only exception is that poor John Lannan, who seems like a pretty nice guy through my TV set, might have just had his career year (3.88 ERA in 206 IP, 89K). Capps had a down 2009, but he and Bruney are very serviceable in the bullpen. Recall that the Nats allowed a whopping 874 runs in '09; that was more than ALL BUT ONE AMERICAN LEAGUE TEAM (thank Jesus for the Orioles, am I right?). The Brewers were the only other NL team to allow 800. So some TARP money was in order here.
However, I wouldn't say I'm pleased with some of the other decisions they made. Cutting Elijah Dukes just because he's a totally unstable wild card seems like something of an overreaction to me. (The Mets should pick him up. Totally serious.) That leaves them with an outfield of Josh Willingham (sneaky good in '09), Nyjer Morgan, and I guess a Willie Harris/Jason Maxwell platoon in right. Yowch. And then there's Pudge, who has been cooked for years but doesn't want to hang 'em up yet. I guess it makes sense that he would wind up in Washington, where hanging on after you're wanted is a way of life.
I will, however, pay to see at least one Strasburg start this summer. So there's that.
posted by Cheddar Ben at 5:55 PM
1 Comments:
Great post, Ched. Loved the line about Jose Reyes turning into Manny Ramirez. As you say, probably not true, but on top of everything else he seems to have begun growing his hair out; it's not quite at Manny levels yet, but remember, it took Manny a couple of years to get where he is today. I'd put the chances of Reyes having ribbons in his hair next Spring Training at 50-50.
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