Omir Santos... 2010 Mike Pelfrey?

I remember arguing with somebody on a message board over at MetsMerized about Mike Pelfrey in the waning weeks of Spring Training.

To my counterpart, Pelfrey was a sure thing. He'd looked dominant for large swaths of 2008, and was ready in 2009 to be a 15-20 game winner.

To me, Pelfrey was the team's greatest gamble. He'd had a few good months in 2008 (you might have even called them great), but it was too small a body of work to start talking about the Pelf Man as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. He was too untested, too raw, and, given the year-on-year increase in innings pitched, an injury risk.

There's nothing to gloat over as Pelfrey's misfortune has been my own, but retrospectively each of the things I predicted about the big guy, aside from injury, has come true. He wasn't a No. 2/3, and placing him in that roll amounted to little more than wishful thinking.

Which brings me to Omir Santos and the question of whether he can be the team's primary catcher next season. Santos has done a fine enough job this season, but his reputation is built primarily on a few clutch hits he got when he first came up.

Take those away and all you're left with is a guy hitting .259 with a .295 OBP and .295 SLG. Consider those stats and ask yourself whether you would ever, EVER, want someone like that in your starting lineup?

If the answer is no, then any concept of using Santos as a starting catcher is premised on an assumption that he could replicate his "clutch" hitting in 2010. The problem with that is that it amounts to cherry-picking previous results and projecting them on to expected returns. It doesn't work like that. Remember Endy Magic in 2006? Wasn't so magical in 2007 (RIP Endy).

I realize no final decisions have been made about Santos, and I also don't know if any better alternatives are out there. Indeed, it may well be that given his price and the team's general hopes for next season, Santos makes more sense than any alternative.

But as the Mets look at their team position-by-position, they need to ask themselves difficult questions about expected production irregardless of their hopes or fond memories for each player.

You can't be sentimental in player evaluations; if you could, the Red Sox never would have traded Nomar in 2004 and who knows what would have happened from there.

What is the most you could reasonably expect out of Omir Santos in 2010? I'm not sure the answer entitles Santos to the starting spot.

That's all I got, have good weekends everyone. Team 2 has a doubleheader on Sunday... hang on to your effing hats.

- A.F.O.M.G.